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TJ Dillashaw Breakdown:
With the weigh-ins complete, TJ appears sharp and has shown himself well prepared for the 125lb branch. On the feet he should have a significant edge over Cejudo. The duration of TJ, combined with his unorthodox style, will let him land serious volume against the limited wrestler. Additionally leg kicks will be a deadly option against front heavy karate stance. Cejudo will probably be needing takedowns and significant top control if he is to win any rounds. Unfortunately for him, TJ has outstanding wrestling himself as well as an arguably more dangerous grappling arsenal. His evasiveness should limit Cejudo’s opportunities to take and on the ground he will be hard to control for extended periods. Overall the road to success appears slim for Cejudo whilst TJ is an established finisher who carries good cardio and far superior volume to win over 5 rounds. The bet will be TJ Dillashaw to become the dual champ!Rachael Ostovich Breakdown:
Both of these fighters have some defects to their game but stylistically this is a winnable fight for the underdog. On the feet Vanzant is more pliable but probably quicker with more quantity. Ostovich has a simpler fashion but neither fighter is likely to land considerable harm . The size and strength for Ostovich will be a significant advantage on the ground where both girls tend to bring the fight. Vanzant is stubborn but takes insecure choices and leaves a great deal of openings for competitions. Ostovich can capitalise here and her exceptional control means she’ll spend much more time on shirt or at dominant positions. Expect a back and forth struggle where we get excellent value on the underdog odds.
Bet = Ostovich in 2.35 (+135) odds. Risk 3 Units to acquire 4.05 Units.
Ariane Lipski Breakdown:
Lipski the”Violence Queen” is making her debut following an impressive run since the KSW champion. Matching up with Calderwood she has the advantage in many regions. The aggression and power of Lipski’s combos at the pocket will be overpowering for Calderwood who lacks speed and head motion. This battle is most likely to play out on the toes but even on the mat it’s Lipski with the better skills. Calderwood is coming off a”lucky” submission win in a fight where she had been having a lot of trouble. Over her career she’s been know to battle with adversity during fights and look for a way out. Lipski though appears to be very durable and struggles with heart. At 24 years old she also will be showing substantial improvements between fights.
Bet = Lipski in 1.53 (-188) chances. Risk 5 Components to acquire 2.65 Units.
Alexander Hernandez Breakdown:
Cerrone is coming back down to 155lbs to get an unlikely matchup against a rising prospect. Hernandez brings a style that’s proven against Cowboy with his fast start and relentless pressure. If this fight goes the distance it will be Hernandez pushing the speed, holding Cerrone against the fence and securing takedowns to impress the judges. Cowboys best way to victory is snatching a entry off his back but that is a little chance against a strong wrestler. The energy, athleticism, childhood and style of Hernandez is going to be a lot for the veteran to handle with just 3 rounds to work with. Cerrone is generally a slow starter and the drop back to 155lb is not likely to help his durability issues.
Bet = Hernandez in 1.54 (-185) odds. Risk 4 Units to acquire 2.16 Units.
Dustin Ortiz Breakdown:
This is a rematch struggle in the very first back in 2014, which Benavidez won through conclusion. Now it’s Ortiz that has proven the most improvements in his sport, now riding an impressive win streak. Benavidez is still a leading contender but does look like he is marginally diminishing in his recent appearances. For example an underdog Ortiz has a couple of avenues to victory. He’ll be at a disadvantage on the toes concerning quantity, but packs considerable power. Benavidez has been wobbled consistently in recent conflicts suggesting his strength is fading. Furthermore the 34 year old will slow down later in the struggle as Ortiz brings a relentless grinding speed. This ought to be a close fight that seems to be lined too wide.
Bet = Ortiz in 3.05 (+205) odds. Risk 2 Units to win 4.1 Units.
Karl Roberson Breakdown:
Roberson is going up as a late replacement to take on the difficult veteran Glover. On the feet the disparity is wide. Roberson is lightning fast and has powerful counters. Glover has slowed substantially to his later years and with his durability fading his lack of head movement is apparent. Cory Anderson (Roberson’s training partner) is not famous for his striking yet found huge success himself on the toes in his last fight against Glover. The obvious issue for Roberson is that his grappling defence, but working with Anderson he should be advancing here as a young prospect. Glover may find some takedowns however if he does not get an early entry it will be tough to keep up with the younger, quicker and more athletic Roberson. Additionally if he can not get it into the mat his choices look bleak. As an underdog, Roberson looks a solid bet.
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